G7 summit gives Zelenskyy chance to win over fence sitters

The Group of Seven (G7) rich nations signaled to Russia their readiness to stand by Ukraine for the long haul while giving President Volodymyr Zelenskyy a chance to win over countries such as Brazil and India on the last day of a summit in Japan.

But even as the G7 leaders began wrapping up their three-day meeting on Sunday, Russia claimed to have finally captured the battered eastern Ukrainian city of Bakhmut, following a months-long siege that marked the bloodiest battle of the war.

Zelenskyy appeared to confirm the loss of Bakhmut to Russia on Sunday, when asked if it remained in Kyiv’s control.

“I think no,” he said ahead of a meeting with U.S. President Joe Biden. “For today, Bakhmut is only in our hearts.”

Russia claimed on Saturday to have fully captured the smashed eastern Ukrainian city, which if true would mark an end to the longest and bloodiest battle of the 15-month war.

“It is tragedy,” Zelenskyy said. “There is nothing on this place.”

Zelenskyy sought global support for Kyiv’s plan to end Russia’s war in Ukraine, telling G7 leaders it was “an obvious expression of rationality”.

Zelenskyy has in recent months been promoting what his administration has billed as a “peace formula”.

“We’re united by one more principle – rationality,” he said in a speech to the leaders, the text of which was posted to the president’s website.

“We always act practically protecting our values. And the Ukrainian Peace Formula is an obvious expression of rationality. I thank you for supporting our Formula.”

In a separate social media post, Zelenskiy said he had presented the plan to G7 leaders at the Hiroshima summit.

“We have developed the Peace Formula in a way that ensures each of its points is backed by U.N. resolutions,” he wrote on the Telegram messaging app.

“And in a way that everyone in the world can choose the track they can contribute to. From Japan to the Arab countries, from Europe to Latin America, we find support for our Formula.”

The leaders of the G7 nations – the United States, Japan, Germany, Britain, France, Italy and Canada – have debated how to respond as the conflict that began in February last year drags on.

Potential joint allied training programs for Ukrainian pilots on U.S.-made F-16 warplanes was a message to Russia that it should not expect to succeed in its invasion by prolonging conflict, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said on Sunday.

Ukraine has not won commitments for delivery of the planes, but Biden and senior U.S. officials told G7 leaders Washington supports joint allied training programs for Ukrainian pilots on F-16s.

French President Emmanuel Macron, meanwhile, said the summit was an opportunity to convince big emerging states such as India and Brazil to come off the fence and put their support behind Ukraine.

Macron made the comment to reporters a day after calling Zelenskyy’s visit at the summit a “game changer”.

Brazil and India have maintained economic and political relations with Moscow after its invasion 15 months ago, frustrating Western efforts to isolate Russia.

Macron said the summit in Hiroshima had been one of unity, notably for Ukraine, and aimed to build a framework for a peace that must be durable, not based on a ceasefire that would create a frozen conflict, and must adhere to international law.

“This war isn’t just European,” Macron said. “It’s the opportunity to discuss, exchange and convince partners of this enlarged G7… India, Brazil, Indonesia and several other countries from the south, who have sometimes not exchanged as much with Ukraine.”

He said Zelenskyy would explain the situation on the ground, while the G7 – the U.S., Japan, Germany, Britain, France, Italy and Canada – would stress the fundamentals of the international order and the importance of keeping to the United Nations charter.

“This allows Zelenskyy to express himself to powers of the world who at times are exposed to just one discourse. And I say that just a few weeks before a BRICS summit,” Macron said, referring to the grouping of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa.

Shortly after Zelenskyy arrived in Japan, Russia claimed victory in Bakhmut. Hours before the claims from Moscow, Ukraine had rejected a claim by Russian mercenary chief Yevgeny Prigozhin that his Wagner fighters had completed the capture of the city.

NO ‘FROZEN CONFLICT’ IN UKRAINE

During the first day of the summit on Friday, in addition to Biden’s endorsement of F-16 training, the G7 announced new sanctions on Russia.

Biden is planning to roll out a $375 million military aid package for Ukraine in Japan as well, according to a U.S. official. The official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said the package will include artillery, ammunition and HIMARS rocket launchers.

Zelenskyy has pushed the countries to go further on both economic and military measures.

Scholz said that while the immediate priority was supporting Ukraine’s defense, security guarantees for Ukraine needed to be established once the war was over.

The German leader said it was important for Zelenskyy to meet leaders of the Global South – a term encompassing major emerging economies like Brazil, India and Indonesia – to convey the message that any proposals for peace talks could not be with the aim of creating a “frozen conflict” and should involve the withdrawal of Russian troops.

As Moscow’s 15-month-old invasion has dragged on, several analysts and diplomats have floated the idea that it could become a frozen conflict like the Korean Peninsula. North and South Korea remain technically at war their 1950-53 conflict ended with a ceasefire rather than a peace treaty.

Macron struck a similar theme, saying: “Peace should not make Ukraine a frozen conflict because that would lead to a war in the future. It needs to resolve the problem.”

‘SHOULDN’T BE NAIVE’ OVER CHINA

Biden met with the leaders of Japan and South Korea on Sunday to discuss military interoperability and the economic coercion they face from China, a U.S. official said.

A day earlier, the G7 leaders outlined a shared approach toward China, looking to “de-risk, not decouple” economic engagement with a country regarded as the factory of the world.

The leaders said cooperation with China was necessary given its role in the international community and heft as the world’s second-biggest economy, as well as areas of common interest such as climate and conservation efforts.

But they said they would take steps to protect sensitive technology that could threaten national security, without unduly limiting trade and investment.

“We shouldn’t be naive. We know where we need to engage with China,” Macron said, citing biodiversity, climate and artificial intelligence. “But we need to preserve interests and have elements of reciprocity and protect value chains. We don’t want an escalation … but on key elements we have to protect ourselves.”

Scholz told broadcaster ZDF on Sunday that the United States, Germany and other rich nations would make sure their big investments into China continue, as would supply chains and exports to China, but the G7 was sending a clear sign it was looking to pare back risk.

In a statement the G7 reaffirmed the importance of peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait, where Chinese military exercises have raised concerns over the security of Taiwan, the democratic, self-governed island that China regards as part of its territory.

China’s foreign ministry issued a complaint to Japan, the G7 host, expressing firm opposition to the G7 joint statement, saying it disregarded China’s concerns, had attacked it and interfered in its internal affairs, including Taiwan.

While in Hiroshima, Biden has had the impasse over the U.S. government debt ceiling hanging over him.

Before leaving Japan he has ordered a call with Republican House of Representatives Speaker Kevin McCarthy, knowing failure to strike a deal would trigger a first-ever default and lead to recession in the United States, spelling more trouble for the global economy.

© Thomson Reuters 2023.